A new study by the National Bureau of Economic Research (NBER) analyzes the long-term effects of H-1B immigration on the US economy. The working paper 35560, released in July 2026, uses an innovative cross-industry design and the expansion of the H-1B visa cap between 1999 and 2003 to identify causal impacts.
Researchers Ran Abramitzky, Leah Platt Boustan, Ahmet Gulek, and Jens Hainmueller found that exposure to H-1B raised the income of natives and pre-existing immigrants. The gains, however, are concentrated in non-STEM occupations, contradicting the intuition that the effect would be larger among technical workers.
Income gains propagate along supply chains: downstream industries (that buy inputs) benefit, but upstream ones (suppliers) do not. This pattern suggests that the effect is a productivity shock, not a labor supply shock.
Interestingly, the study finds no direct effect on patents. This indicates that productivity gains come from better execution of tasks, not from patentable inventions.
The study is relevant to the debate on skilled immigration policies, showing that H-1B can benefit the economy as a whole, not just hiring firms. The authors use long-term data and a design that allows comparing industries more and less exposed to the program.
For AIatolah, the research reinforces the importance of open, evidence-based immigration policies, in contrast to restrictions that harm innovation and growth. The full paper is available on the NBER website, with DOI 10.3386/w35560.