The golden age of domestic computing power: does its future growth curve depend on this?

China’s domestic computing power sector has entered what many experts call a golden age, driven by massive state investment and rapid private-sector innovation. The country now leads in high-performance computing rankings and is closing the gap in AI-specific chips, raising questions about whether this growth can be sustained.

The future growth curve of Chinese computing power hinges on overcoming bottlenecks in advanced semiconductor manufacturing, particularly extreme ultraviolet lithography. Without access to cutting-edge equipment, companies like Huawei and SMIC have turned to novel stacking and packaging techniques to boost performance.

Chinese AI startups like DeepSeek and Kimi are proving that software optimization can partly compensate for hardware limitations. Their models achieve competitive results using fewer high-end chips, suggesting a shift toward efficiency over raw compute power.

However, the United States’ export controls on advanced AI chips and manufacturing tools continue to create uncertainty for China’s long-term trajectory. Beijing’s response has been to accelerate self-sufficiency programs, pouring billions into domestic chip design and foundry projects.

The real wildcard is whether China can master new computing paradigms like photonic or quantum chips, where the playing field is more level. If successful, these breakthroughs could bypass traditional silicon bottlenecks and redefine the global computing landscape.

For now, China’s computing power growth remains impressive but fragile, dependent on both technological leaps and geopolitical stability. The coming years will reveal whether this golden age is a sustainable renaissance or a sprint before a longer marathon.